The global commodities market in 2024 is characterized by an intricate and fluctuating landscapeFrom energy resources to metals, the price trends reflect not just the game of supply and demand, but also the interplay of various economic factors that are at playAs the world gradually emerges from the economic stagnation due to the global pandemic, one may wonder if the commodities market could see a resurgence in 2025 amid the uncertainties created by geopolitical tensions, interest rate cuts by major economies, a global energy transition, and the impacts of extreme weather patterns.

The variations in pricing are evident, particularly in China, which has seen a generalized decline in commodity prices, while international markets experienced an initial surge followed by subsequent fluctuationsAccording to the recent report from China's National Bureau of Statistics, the producer price index for industrial products declined by 2.2% year-on-year in 2024, showcasing a less severe drop than in the previous year

Analyzing monthly trends reveals a persistent negative growth rate throughout the year, where the peak was a modest -0.1% in July, and the trough reached -3.5% in MarchOnly in May and June did the month-to-month growth figures show a flicker of positivity.

The China Bulk Commodity Price Index (CBPI) shed light on this data, starting at 112.1 points in January and peaking at 118.9 points in May before tumbling down to 110.1 points by September, with a slight recovery later in the yearBy December, the index recorded a final value of 111.2 points, indicating the volatility that has enveloped this market.

Insights from Zhou Xu, Vice President and Secretary-General of the Circulation Sub-Association of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, paint a broader picture of the commodities market speculations for 2025. Despite numerous uncertainties, including the optimization of economic policies and incentives initiated by China, there is hope for a boost in demand, suggesting that China's economy might continue its relatively stable growth trajectory

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Alongside the forecast of more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies globally, coupled with easing geopolitical tensions, the outlook for the commodity market seems to lean toward a more favorable scenario compared to 2024.

However, contrasting opinions arise, as Wen Bin, Chief Economist at Minsheng Bank, foresees a decline in global commodity prices driven by weakening demandEconomic policies in major advanced nations, especially efforts towards energy independence, may incentivize increased production of traditional energy sources, such as shale oil in the United StatesSuch actions could pressure supply chains, while tariff impositions might elevate global trade costs, ultimately curtailing demand for oil and other critical commoditiesReduced geopolitical pressures may alleviate supply-side disruptions, suggesting that crude oil prices, among other energy commodities, may witness a regression in value.

The complexities of the market were articulated by Li Xuezhong, the director of the Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, who viewed 2024 as a disappointing year in terms of the anticipated global economic recovery

The year was divided into two significant periods: prior to June, when the market was fueled by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing and global manufacturing growth, leading to a robust increase in the prices of precious and non-ferrous metalsHowever, from June to the year's conclusion, the arising fears of manufacturing downturns and weakened investments in infrastructure and real estate in China heralded the swift decline in prices.

In terms of demand, Li is optimistic about a potential rebound in commodity requests, forecasted to be influenced by several factors including augmented stimulus measures from the Chinese government and synchronized shifts in monetary policies of China and the U.SThese currents, in tandem with the Belt and Road Initiative's ambitions, could provide a much-needed boost in demand as the world ventures into a renewed growth cycle and navigates through the eras of green energy transitions

Li noted that the ongoing expansion of and increasing reliance on non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin will be driven by the transition to cleaner technologies and sustainable energy forms.

From a commodities standpoint, different categories of goods reacted distinctly in 2024. Statistics from the National Bureau reveal that fuel and power categories saw a considerable year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, while the prices of chemical raw materials and agricultural products alike witnessed declinesCorrespondingly, data from the CBPI depicted similar trends across its subdivisions, with energy and agricultural indices lowering significantly compared to the beginning of the year.

Experts like Shi Jianxun have indicated that the energy commodity market experienced fluctuations in alignment with expectations, although the second half of the year suggested a downward trend preceding a potential uptick as 2025 approached

He further reflected on the diminishing influence of Western pricing indices on Chinese markets, which opens a favorable window for establishing an international pricing framework that could benefit China's commodity trading landscape if approached with proper strategic planning.

As for agricultural commodities, Hu Bingchuan, a researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, commented on the overarching trend for 2024. While the Fed's monetary policy lays a foundational support for agricultural pricing, a generally oversupplied global agricultural market keeps prices on a downward trajectoryHe pointed out that domestic food consumption trends are showcasing saturation levels, wherein staple crops like rice and wheat rely heavily on governmental price-support mechanisms.

Looking ahead to 2025, Hu suggested that both global economic recovery and sustained agricultural production could result in pressure on prices