U.S. Stocks Diverge: Dow Rises Over 300 Points

Advertisements

The financial landscape remains as dynamic as ever as the three major indices in the U.Srecorded mixed results on MondayWith the tech sector taking a hit, the Nasdaq Composite experienced a decline of 0.8%. This was influenced significantly by the announcement of new regulatory measures impacting artificial intelligence chips, thus putting downward pressure on tech stocks.

In the realm of long-term bonds, yields continued their upward trajectory, with the 10-year U.STreasury note inching closer to the elusive 5% markMeanwhile, gold prices plummeted by over 1%, slipping below $2,700 per ounce, driven by the persistent strength of the U.Sdollar.

The day concluded with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing a gain of 358.67 points, translating to a 0.86% increment, closing at 42,297.12 pointsThe Nasdaq, however, dipped by 0.38%, landing at 19,088.10 points, while the S&P 500 index marginally rose by 0.16%, finishing at 5,836.22 points.

In a broader market overview, the New York Federal Reserve released consumer survey data indicating that the one-year inflation expectations remained stable at 3.0%. However, it highlighted that the three-year inflation outlook increased from 2.6% in November to 3.0%. Respondents mentioned growing uncertainty regarding inflation forecasts

Rising food prices were noted, yet the anticipated increase in housing costs remained steady at 3.1%. Contrarily, the projections for gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels since September 2022, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting consumer sentiment.

The persistent volatility in global financial markets appears to have contributed to the continued rise in mid-to-long-term U.STreasury yieldsThe two-year Treasury yield, closely tied to interest rate expectations, rose by 0.5 basis points, reaching 4.40%. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield saw a steady rise of 0.3 basis points, reaching 4.80%, marking the highest level since October 2023. The previous week's non-farm payroll report vastly exceeded market expectations, acting as a stone thrown into a calm lake, provoking a series of reactions in the marketsSignificantly, the expectations for a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy diminished considerably.

Before the recent employment data was released, the market predicted the Federal Reserve had about 43 basis points of room for rate cuts this year

Following the data's release, this figure plummeted to around 26 basis pointsAdditionally, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June just surpassed 50%, signaling a notable increase in market uncertainty.

While the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy appears bleak, emerging governmental policies regarding tariffs and illegal immigration threaten to exacerbate global trade tensions and increase price pressuresThe forthcoming consumer price index (CPI) report and the Fed's Beige Book, due Wednesday, are anticipated to provide insight into future Fed policy directions that may resonate with investors.

Market analysts, such as Griskie from Ingalls & Snyder, express concerns over potential higher inflation figures, emphasizing that it may take a while to see lower interest rates againHe noted, "The inflation situation is established, and overall, higher yields are adverse for both the bond and stock markets." As anticipation builds for the Biden administration's strategies post-inauguration on January 21, the dialogue around inflation and interest rates remains central to investor conversations.

On the technical analysis front, LPL Financial's Chief Technical Strategist, Turnquist, remarked on the likelihood that the yield on the 10-year Treasury could reach 5%. He commented, “As long as we are in this range at least, it will be difficult for the stock market to gain any meaningful traction.” He pointed out a non-bearish market sentiment but cited an expected short-term pullback.

Investors are pinning hopes on the upcoming earnings season in the fourth quarter being a stabilizing force for the markets

Major financial institutions including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report their earnings on Wednesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reporting the following day.

From a sector perspective, the semiconductor stocks took a downturn, with Nvidia witnessing a decline of 1.97% and Micron Technology down by 4.31%. This was attributed to the government's intent to further restrict AI chip and technology exportsIn contrast, the healthcare sector saw gains of 1.3%, with CVS Health and Humana surging around 7%, while UnitedHealth climbed close to 4%. This was spurred by proposals from the U.Sgovernment to revise reimbursement rates for Medicare plans in 2026.

Johnson & Johnson’s stock ticked up by 1.7% following the announcement of a $14.6 billion cash acquisition of a cell therapy company aimed at bolstering its investments in the neuroscience domain

alefox

In stark contrast, the utilities sector showed signs of struggle; shares of Edison International plummeted nearly 12% due to allegations that its equipment may be responsible for igniting several wildfires in California.

Moderna faced a sharp drop of 16.8% after revising its sales forecast for 2025 downward by $1 billion, raising concerns about future revenuesOn a broader scale, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also fell by nearly 0.3%, mirroring concerns regarding Chinese tech stocks.

Internationally, oil prices continued their upward spiral, leaning on market anticipation around the impact of new U.Ssanctions on RussiaThe WTI crude oil futures saw a significant increase of 2.94%, reaching $78.82 per barrel, while Brent crude also rose by 1.57% to $81.01 per barrel.

Furthermore, international gold prices significantly declined amidst a strengthening dollar and easing concerns about the Middle East tensions that typically drive safe-haven buying